How many can you catch? Factors influencing the occurrence of multi-prey loading in provisioning Greater Crested Terns

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Seabirds use several methods to transport food to their chicks; most species carry food in their stomachs or crops, but some terns and auks carry prey in their bills. Terns usually only carry one prey item at a time, limiting the rate at which they can provision their chicks, and restricting their effective foraging range. However, some terns do occasionally carry multiple prey, which should offer a selective advantage, but there are very few studies investigating the factors influencing the occurrence of multi-prey loading. We investigated the occurrence of multi-prey loads in provisioning Greater Crested Terns (Swift Tern) Thalasseus bergii bergii breeding on Robben Island, South Africa. Of 24 173 loads photographed, 1.3% comprised multiple prey items. Up to 11 fish were carried at once, but most multi-prey loads contained two Anchovies Engraulis encrasicolus, the most common prey item for this population of terns. Mixed species prey were recorded for the first time in a tern. Multi-prey loads occurred more frequently during mid- and late-provisioning, presumably because large chicks can cope with multiple prey, and have higher energetic requirements than small chicks. Mean standard length of Anchovies in multi-prey prey loads was less than Anchovies in single loads, possibly suggesting terns compensate for smaller prey sizes by bringing multiple prey back to their chick. The orientation of multiple Anchovies in a tern’s bill tended to be the same, suggesting that they were captured from polarised fish schools. At least some multi-prey loads were caught in a single dive.Our research was supported by a Department of Science and Technology–National Research Foundation grant to the Centre of Excellence at the FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, the Leiden Conservation Foundation (RBS) and our institutes. SANParks and Robben Island Museum provided logistical support and access to the tern colonies. This research was approved by SANParks (CONM1182), the Department of Environmental Affairs (RES2013/24, RES2014/83 and RES2015/65) and the animal ethics committee of the University of Cape Town (2013/V3/TC)

Bayesian analysis for inference of an emerging epidemic: citrus canker in urban landscapes.

Outbreaks of infectious diseases require a rapid response from policy makers. The choice of an adequate level of response relies upon available knowledge of the spatial and temporal parameters governing pathogen spread, affecting, amongst others, the predicted severity of the epidemic. Yet, when a new pathogen is introduced into an alien environment, such information is often lacking or of no use, and epidemiological parameters must be estimated from the first observations of the epidemic. This poses a challenge to epidemiologists: how quickly can the parameters of an emerging disease be estimated? How soon can the future progress of the epidemic be reliably predicted? We investigate these issues using a unique, spatially and temporally resolved dataset for the invasion of a plant disease, Asiatic citrus canker in urban Miami. We use epidemiological models, Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo, and advanced spatial statistical methods to analyse rates and extent of spread of the disease. A rich and complex epidemic behaviour is revealed. The spatial scale of spread is approximately constant over time and can be estimated rapidly with great precision (although the evidence for long-range transmission is inconclusive). In contrast, the rate of infection is characterised by strong monthly fluctuations that we associate with extreme weather events. Uninformed predictions from the early stages of the epidemic, assuming complete ignorance of the future environmental drivers, fail because of the unpredictable variability of the infection rate. Conversely, predictions improve dramatically if we assume prior knowledge of either the main environmental trend, or the main environmental events. A contrast emerges between the high detail attained by modelling in the spatiotemporal description of the epidemic and the bottleneck imposed on epidemic prediction by the limits of meteorological predictability. We argue that identifying such bottlenecks will be a fundamental step in future modelling of weather-driven epidemics.FMN gratefully acknowledges financial support from BBSRC, USDA-ARS, USDA-Aphis PPQ, Citrus Research and Development Foundation. CAG gratefully acknowledges the support of a BBSRC Professorial Fellowship, with additional support from USDA and Defra. ARC was supported by BBSRC, USDA, the National University of Singapore, and NMRC. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Dietary studies in birds: testing a non-invasive method using digital photography in seabirds

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.© 2016 The Authors. Methods in Ecology and Evolution © 2016 British Ecological Society Dietary studies give vital insights into foraging behaviour, with implications for understanding changing environmental conditions and the anthropogenic impacts on natural resources. Traditional diet sampling methods may be invasive or subject to biases, so developing non-invasive and unbiased methods applicable to a diversity of species is essential. We used digital photography to investigate the diet fed to chicks of a prey-carrying seabird and compared our approach (photo-sampling) to a traditional method (regurgitations) for the greater crested tern Thalasseus bergii. Over three breeding seasons, we identified > 24 000 prey items of at least 48 different species, more than doubling the known diversity of prey taken by this population of terns. We present a method to estimate the length of the main prey species (anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus) from photographs, with an accuracy < 1 mm and precision ~ 0·5 mm. Compared to regurgitations at two colonies, photo-sampling produced similar estimates of prey composition and size, at a faster species accumulation rate. The prey compositions collected by two researchers photo-sampling concurrently were also similar. Photo-sampling offers a non-invasive tool to accurately and efficiently investigate the diet composition and prey size of prey-carrying birds. It reduces biases associated with observer-based studies and is simple to use. This methodology provides a novel tool to aid conservation and management decision-making in the light of the growing need to assess environmental and anthropogenic change in natural ecosystems.Department of Science and Technology-Centre of Excellence Gran

Defining ecologically relevant scales for spatial protection with long-term data on an endangered seabird and local prey availability

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.Human activities are important drivers of marine ecosystem functioning. However, separating the synergistic effects of fishing and environmental variability on the prey base of nontarget predators is difficult, often because prey availability estimates on appropriate scales are lacking. Understandi ng how prey abundance at different spatial scales links to population change can help integrate the needs of nontarget predators into fisheries management by defining ecologically relevant areas for spatial protection. We investigated the local population response (number of breeders) of the Bank Cormorant (Phalacrocorax neglectus), a range-restricted endangered seabird, to the availability of its prey, the heavily fished west coast rock lobster (Jasus lalandii). Using Bayesian state-space modeled cormorant counts at 3 colonies, 22 years of fisheries-independent data on local lobster abundance, and generalized additive modeling, we determined the spatial scale pertinent to these relationships in areas with different lobster availability. Cormorant numbers responded positively to lobster availability in the regions with intermediate and high abundance but not where regime shifts and fishing pressure had depleted lobster stocks. The relationships were strongest when lobsters 20–30 km offshore of the colony were considered, a distance greater than the Bank Cormorant's foraging range when breeding, and may have been influenced by prey availability for nonbreeding birds, prey switching, or prey ecology. Our results highlight the importance of considering the scale of ecological relationships in marine spatial planning and suggest that designing spatial protection around focal species can benefit marine predators across their full life cycle. We propose the precautionary implementation of small-scale marine protected areas, followed by robust assessment and adaptive-management, to confirm population-level benefits for the cormorants, their prey, and the wider ecosystem, without negative impacts on local fisheries.The National Research Foundation (NRF) SEAChange Grant 79735 and an incentive grant to R.J.M.C., Leiden Conservation Foundation, Claude Leon Foundation, and our institutions provided funding

Parenting in a warming world: thermoregulatory responses to heat stress in an endangered seabird

This is the final version. Available on open access from Oxford University Press via the DOI in this recordThe frequency of extreme weather events, including heat waves, is increasing with climate change. The thermoregulatory demands resulting from hotter weather can have catastrophic impacts on animals, leading to mass mortalities. Although less dramatic, animals also experience physiological costs below, but approaching, critical temperature thresholds. These costs may be particularly constraining during reproduction, when parents must balance thermoregulation against breeding activities. Such challenges should be acute among seabirds, which often nest in locations exposed to high solar radiation and predation risk. The globally endangered bank cormorant Phalacrocorax neglectus breeds in southern Africa in the winter, giving little scope for poleward or phenological shifts in the face of increasing temperatures. Physiological studies of endangered species sensitive to human disturbance, like the bank cormorant, are challenging, because individuals cannot be captured for experimental research. Using a novel, non-invasive, videographic approach, we investigated the thermoregulatory responses of this seabird across a range of environmental temperatures at three nesting colonies. The time birds spent gular fluttering, a behaviour enhancing evaporative heat loss, increased with temperature. Crouching or standing birds spent considerably less time gular fluttering than birds sitting on nests (ca 30% less at 22°C), showing that postural adjustments mediate exposure to heat stress and enhance water conservation. Crouching or standing, however, increases the vulnerability of eggs and chicks to suboptimal temperatures and/or expose nest contents to predation, suggesting that parents may trade-off thermoregulatory demands against offspring survival. We modelled thermoregulatory responses under future climate scenarios and found that nest-bound bank cormorants will gular flutter almost continuously for several hours a day by 2100. The associated increase in water loss may lead to dehydration, forcing birds to prioritize survival over breeding, a trade-off that would ultimately deteriorate the conservation status of this species.National Research FoundationDST-NRF Centre of Excellence fund at the FitzPatrick Institute of African OrnithologyLeiden Conservation Foundatio

Postcopulatory sexual selection

The female reproductive tract is where competition between the sperm of different males takes place, aided and abetted by the female herself. Intense postcopulatory sexual selection fosters inter-sexual conflict and drives rapid evolutionary change to generate a startling diversity of morphological, behavioural and physiological adaptations. We identify three main issues that should be resolved to advance our understanding of postcopulatory sexual selection. We need to determine the genetic basis of different male fertility traits and female traits that mediate sperm selection; identify the genes or genomic regions that control these traits; and establish the coevolutionary trajectory of sexes

Spatial and topological organization of DNA chains induced by gene co-localization

Transcriptional activity has been shown to relate to the organization of chromosomes in the eukaryotic nucleus and in the bacterial nucleoid. In particular, highly transcribed genes, RNA polymerases and transcription factors gather into discrete spatial foci called transcription factories. However, the mechanisms underlying the formation of these foci and the resulting topological order of the chromosome remain to be elucidated. Here we consider a thermodynamic framework based on a worm-like chain model of chromosomes where sparse designated sites along the DNA are able to interact whenever they are spatially close-by. This is motivated by recurrent evidence that there exists physical interactions between genes that operate together. Three important results come out of this simple framework. First, the resulting formation of transcription foci can be viewed as a micro-phase separation of the interacting sites from the rest of the DNA. In this respect, a thermodynamic analysis suggests transcription factors to be appropriate candidates for mediating the physical interactions between genes. Next, numerical simulations of the polymer reveal a rich variety of phases that are associated with different topological orderings, each providing a way to increase the local concentrations of the interacting sites. Finally, the numerical results show that both one-dimensional clustering and periodic location of the binding sites along the DNA, which have been observed in several organisms, make the spatial co-localization of multiple families of genes particularly efficient.Comment: Figures and Supplementary Material freely available on http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.100067

A Heuristic Solution of the Identifiability Problem of the Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Cancer Occurrence: Lung Cancer Example

Background: The Age–Period–Cohort (APC) analysis is aimed at estimating the following effects on disease incidence: (i) the age of the subject at the time of disease diagnosis; (ii) the time period, when the disease occurred; and (iii) the date of birth of the subject. These effects can help in evaluating the biological events leading to the disease, in estimating the influence of distinct risk factors on disease occurrence, and in the development of new strategies for disease prevention and treatment. Methodology/Principal Findings: We developed a novel approach for estimating the APC effects on disease incidence rates in the frame of the Log-Linear Age-Period-Cohort (LLAPC) model. Since the APC effects are linearly interdependent and cannot be uniquely estimated, solving this identifiability problem requires setting four redundant parameters within a set of unknown parameters. By setting three parameters (one of the time-period and the birth-cohort effects and the corresponding age effect) to zero, we reduced this problem to the problem of determining one redundant parameter and, used as such, the effect of the time-period adjacent to the anchored time period. By varying this identification parameter, a family of estimates of the APC effects can be obtained. Using a heuristic assumption that the differences between the adjacent birth-cohort effects are small, we developed a numerical method for determining the optimal value of the identification parameter, by which a unique set of all APC effects is determined and the identifiability problem is solved

Risk measures for direct real estate investments with non-normal or unknown return distributions

The volatility of returns is probably the most widely used risk measure for real estate. This is rather surprising since a number of studies have cast doubts on the view that volatility can capture the manifold risks attached to properties and corresponds to the risk attitude of investors. A central issue in this discussion is the statistical properties of real estate returns—in contrast to neoclassical capital market theory they are mostly non-normal and often unknown, which render many statistical measures useless. Based on a literature review and an analysis of data from Germany we provide evidence that volatility alone is inappropriate for measuring the risk of direct real estate. We use a unique data sample by IPD, which includes the total returns of 939 properties across different usage types (56% office, 20% retail, 8% others and 16% residential properties) from 1996 to 2009, the German IPD Index, and the German Property Index. The analysis of the distributional characteristics shows that German real estate returns in this period were not normally distributed and that a logistic distribution would have been a better fit. This is in line with most of the current literature on this subject and leads to the question which indicators are more appropriate to measure real estate risks. We suggest that a combination of quantitative and qualitative risk measures more adequately captures real estate risks and conforms better with investor attitudes to risk. Furthermore, we present criteria for the purpose of risk classification